Real format and depth — using data from a fictional company (Andina Software S.A.S.) to show you exactly what you get.
Sector: B2B SaaS · Retail Inventory Management · Bogotá, Colombia
No. ViSFI-VAL-0087
Andina Software generates $1,240M COP in annual recurring revenue, with 4 years of operation in Bogotá. The range comes from weighting five independent methodologies, adjusted for sector-specific risk and current market conditions.
This report cross-references five valuation lenses — discounted cash flow, comparable transaction multiples, net assets, ARR multiple, and the Berkus method — to arrive at a number that holds up in a real negotiation, not just a spreadsheet. The following pages develop each assumption, with its source, and close with three concrete recommendations on what to do with this number.
Each method answers a different question. Using them together — not just one — is what separates a defensible valuation from a number pulled off a template.
Discounted Cash Flow — DCF (45% weight). Projects 5 years of free cash flow and brings it to present value with a 15.5% WACC, calculated via CAPM over the Colombian market’s risk-free rate and a levered beta for B2B software in Latin America. Answers: what is the business worth based on what it’s going to generate?
Comparable transaction multiples (20% weight). Against 6 B2B SaaS/retail-tech transactions in Colombia and the region between 2024-2026, with EBITDA adjusted for non-recurring expenses. Answers: what have buyers actually paid for similar businesses?
Net assets (value floor, not weighted). Doesn’t enter the weighted average — it sets the defensible minimum in a liquidation scenario. Answers: what’s left if everything shuts down tomorrow?
| Variable | Value used | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free rate | 9.2% | 10-year TES, 90-day avg. |
| Market risk premium | 5.8% | Damodaran, emerging markets |
| Levered beta | 1.10 | LatAm software sector comparables |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% | Expected CPI + 0.5 pts |
| EV/EBITDA multiple applied | 5.9x | Median of 6 comparable transactions |
A bank discounts cash flows. A strategic SaaS buyer and an angel investor think differently — and for a company at Andina’s stage, ignoring those two lenses leaves money on the table.
ARR multiple — SaaS rule of thumb (20% weight). The software-as-a-service market pays between 2x and 5x Annual Recurring Revenue, depending on growth rate and gross margin. It’s the number a strategic buyer calculates first, before asking for the full financial model. On Andina’s $1,240M ARR, we apply 2.5x.
Berkus Method (15% weight). Originally designed for pre-revenue startups, we include it here as a reference for the qualitative value of the team, product, and commercial traction — not as a primary method, given that Andina already generates recurring revenue — so as not to leave that component out of the analysis.
| Variable | Value used | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ARR multiple applied | 2.5x | 2-5x range based on 20-30% growth and >65% gross margin |
| Current ARR | $1,240M COP | Annualized recurring revenue |
| Team and product (Berkus) | $2,400M | Five weighted qualitative factors |
| Item | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,240 | 1,525 | 1,845 | 2,170 | 2,480 |
| EBITDA | 248 | 320 | 406 | 488 | 570 |
| Free cash flow | 172 | 228 | 293 | 352 | 412 |
| Present value (15.5%) | 149 | 171 | 190 | 198 | 200 |
| Terminal value (PV) | 1,942 | ||||
| g 2.5% | g 3.5% | g 4.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC 13.5% | 3,150 | 3,350 | 3,550 |
| WACC 15.5% | 2,700 | 2,850 | 3,000 |
| WACC 17.5% | 2,250 | 2,400 | 2,550 |
A number in isolation says nothing. Here’s that same value set next to real transactions and the cost of capital you’d demand yourself.
| Company | Year | ARR (COP M) | EV/ARR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail SaaS — Mexico | 2025 | 1,050 | 2.1x |
| Inventory SaaS — Chile | 2026 | 1,400 | 2.8x |
| B2B SaaS — Bogotá | 2024 | 890 | 2.3x |
| Logistics SaaS — Peru | 2025 | 1,600 | 3.0x |
| Retail SaaS — Brazil | 2026 | 2,100 | 2.9x |
| B2B SaaS — group median | — | — | 2.6x |
A valuation without its risks made explicit is a promise, not an analysis. These are the factors most likely to move it, in either direction.
Revenue concentration. Three accounts represent 32% of Andina’s ARR. Losing one isn’t just a revenue drop — it’s a multiple drop: buyers penalize concentration with an additional 0.5x-1x discount on EV/ARR.
Key-developer dependency. The core product depends on a single developer. No method in this report adjusts for key-person risk — how much the business is worth if that person is unavailable for 6 months — it’s the first adjustment any serious buyer will ask for.
No exclusivity with infrastructure providers. Andina has no exclusivity contracts with its 2 cloud infrastructure providers, introducing cost variability not captured in the base case.
Uncaptured upside. A large retail contract under negotiation isn’t included in the base case — it only activates if signed before the transaction closes — but if it does, it adds 9% to the value.
A report that ends in a figure is only half the job. Here’s what I’d do if this were my company.
- Reduce client concentration before raising capital or sellingThis is the report’s largest negative factor (page 7). Diversifying those 3 accounts to a minimum of 6-8 lifts the negotiable multiple, not just revenue.
- Use the transaction median (2.6x) as your anchor, not the implied 2.24x from the base caseYour DCF is conservative by design. If strategic buyers are already paying 2.6x-3.0x ARR for comparable businesses, that’s your starting point at the table — not this report’s weighted average.
- Revalue in 6 months, not 12At the current growth rate (23% year-over-year), a report from a year ago no longer reflects your business. This document has an expiration date.
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Every ViSFI report follows the same eight-step sequence — not as brand decoration, but as the real order in which the decisions behind this document were made.
| Step | What it meant here |
|---|---|
| C — Comprender (Understand) | Discovery session: business model, anchor accounts, retail pipeline. |
| R — Razonar (Reason) | Choosing 5 methods, not 1 — and weighting them by what each best captures for Andina’s stage. |
| I — Integrar IA (Integrate AI) | Projection and sensitivity models run with AI assistance, manually validated against every assumption on page 3. |
| T — Tomar la decisión (Decide) | Setting the base value at $2,780M — not the blind average of the 5 methods, but the point that best holds up against the risk analysis (page 7). |
| E — Ejecutar (Execute) | This document: every number traceable to its source, every assumption editable in the review session. |
| R — Revisar (Review) | An explicit expiration date (recommendation 3) — a number without a review date isn’t data, it’s superstition. |
| I — Innovar (Innovate) | Methods like the ARR multiple are included because the SaaS market moves faster than classic valuation manuals. |
| O — Optimizar (Optimize Impact) | The goal isn’t the number — it’s that you can negotiate, raise capital, or decide with more judgment than you had before reading this. |
You shouldn’t have to Google these terms or ask someone else about your own company. They’re here, in the same document.
- WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
- The minimum rate of return your business should generate to justify the risk of investing in it, versus an equally risky alternative.
- Terminal value
- Everything your business generates after the explicit projection period, compressed into a single present-value number. In mature businesses, it’s often more than half of total value.
- EV/EBITDA and EV/ARR
- How many times annual operating profit (or recurring revenue) a buyer is willing to pay for 100% of your company. It’s the “price per square foot” of valuations.
- Market risk premium
- The extra return an investor demands for putting money into equities instead of risk-free debt.
- Value floor (net assets)
- What would be left if the company shut down tomorrow and sold everything. It’s never the number that gets negotiated — it’s the number below which you shouldn’t accept anything.
5 cross-checked methodologies, sensitivity analysis, benchmarking against real transactions, quantified key risks, and a 30-minute review session with me — applied to your business, not Andina Software’s.