The Strongest Peso in Years, a Fed That Keeps Tightening, and the AI Already Moving Whole Banks

Intelligence Pulse

Colombia’s COLCAP index closed Friday slightly lower, around 2,609 points (Investing.com). Cementos Argos Pf (+5.76%) and Grupo Aval (+2.66%) led gains; Bancolombia (-2.18%) and Ecopetrol (-1.99% on the week) dragged the index down (Portafolio). The underlying story is still debt: 10-year TES yields are running at 12.7%-12.8%, the seventh-highest among emerging markets (La República), reflecting fiscal uncertainty that Colombia’s independent fiscal watchdog flagged this week: net debt is set to keep climbing in 2027 (67.3% of GDP) with a projected primary deficit of 4.5% of GDP (Bloomberg Línea).

Headline inflation still sits at 6.24% year-over-year (August; September’s print is due from DANE next week — Infobae), and the central bank has held its policy rate at 12.0% since July, with 72.7% of analysts expecting it to hold again at the September 30 meeting (Portafolio). The peso remains global news: the official exchange rate closed Friday at COP 3,329.61 per dollar (Noticias Caracol). In money markets, the overnight IBR rate stood at 11.177% (datos.gov.co) and the DTF at 10.19% (La República) in their latest available readings — neither is strictly this week’s print, so treat them as reference points. Bitcoin closed near $84,000-84,400, up 8.85% on the week (Infobae).

Internationally, the week turned on two threads. First, the Strait of Hormuz: WTI crude fell to $92-94/barrel (-7.4% on the week) on signs of a possible phased deal between Iran and the U.S. (Al Jazeera). Second, and more relevant to household budgets: the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.18%, its highest level since the global financial crisis, pushing the 30-year mortgage rate to 7.45% and dragging consumer confidence (Michigan) to a four-month low (Yahoo Finance). All of this, nine days after the Fed —now under Chair Kevin Warsh— raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023 (Federal Reserve).

Wall Street, however, closed in the green: the Dow closed at 51,828.62 (+0.93%, snapping a three-week losing streak), the S&P 500 at 7,743.41 (+0.51%), and the Nasdaq at 27,068.72 (+0.50%), both posting weekly gains (Rolling Out). The engine was Meta, up roughly 16% on the week after launching its AI agent “Muse” (more in AI Frontier), dragging chipmakers like Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm along with it. The counterweight: banks like Charles Schwab (-6.1%) and LPL Financial (-7.5%) sold off on fears that agentic AI will erode their customer base (CNBC).

Next week crosses two calendars. In Colombia: the central bank’s rate decision on September 30 (Banrep), minutes around October 5, September’s inflation print from DANE in early October, and a fresh round of TES bond auctions (Valora Analitik). Globally: consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings on Tuesday the 29th, ADP employment and the PCE deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) on Wednesday the 30th, and the week’s most-watched release: September’s nonfarm payrolls on Friday, October 2, with the market expecting a sharp slowdown to roughly 85,000 jobs from 162,000 in August (CNBC). If that number disappoints, the conversation about how much further the Fed can hike shifts overnight.

AI Frontier

On September 8, Meta launched “Muse,” a personal AI agent that doesn’t wait to be asked — it acts. It compares insurance policies, switches your bank, rebooks flights, and hunts for better credit card rates on its own. Within two weeks it overtook ChatGPT as the #1 free app in the U.S. and Canada, with 2.8 million downloads (Bloomberg). The market reacted fast: if an AI agent can switch you to a different bank automatically, the cost of retaining deposits rises and bank margins compress — which is why Schwab, LPL, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo all fell the same week Meta rallied (Seeking Alpha). The practical takeaway: “customer inertia,” the invisible asset that has quietly propped up a big share of bank profitability, now has a named opponent — and it isn’t human.

Signal vs. Noise

The noise: a strong Colombian peso, a green Wall Street, and Bitcoin up 8.85% on the week paint a picture of broad-based risk appetite.

The signal: underneath, U.S. Treasury yields are at their highest since 2008, mortgage rates are at two-year highs, consumer confidence is falling, the Fed keeps hiking, and the Fear & Greed Index reads 44 — “fear” (AltIndex, a sentiment signal, not verified market data). In Colombia, the currency party coexists with TES yields at 12.7% and fiscal debt warnings. The operating conclusion: risk-asset prices are climbing, but so is the cost of money — don’t mistake a rally for a sign that risk has gone away.

Quote of the Day

“Most indicators suggest the AI equity boom is nearing an end… the data look consistent with a late-stage bubble.” —James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a client note this week. With Meta up 16% in five days on a single product launch, it’s worth asking whether the market is pricing a technology or betting on a narrative.

Do you already know how to structure your peso and dollar portfolio for what’s coming? Check your Criterio Score and subscribe to the Daily Briefing so you don’t miss Tuesday’s rate decision.